Greenland"The utterly plausible case that climate change makes London much colder" - Financial Times 11 January 2025

The FT's article is a climate landmark: one of the rare times a serious, widely-read and respected newspaper has highlighted the very serious risks and consequences of climate change.  This time, a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC).  The slowdown and/or its consequences has been documented by many climate scientists, including James Hanson and Stefan Rahmstorf (see his talk about tipping points in another blog entry) since the 1990s.  A slowdown and eventual halting of AMOC is expected to eventually result in a reduction of average temperatures in northern Europe (including the UK) of as much as 10 degrees Celsius.  This may not sound much, but it will have major consequences, especially for food production as balmy southern England will turn into an artic circle-like climate and agriculture as we know it (and many other things) will cease, with major consequences for northern Europe's food security.  Think The Day after Tomorrow movie minus the high drama.

AMOC transports warm, salty water from the southern oceans up to to the Arctic, cooling West Africa and eastern South America and warming the ocean west of the UK and Europe, up to Greenland.  When the water cools down, the density increases, making it sink down and return to the southern ocean, where it warms again.  Increasing ocean temperatures and other factors, including melting of Greenland's ice sheet (Arctic ice cover is pretty much shrinking every year) which dilutes the ocean's saltiness, are causing the motor which drives AMOC to slow and likely eventually to stop.  So the warm water will no longer moderate northern Europe's climate.  Once the current slows down and stops it will not restart - a tipping point.  The question of course is the rate of slowdown.  But, given the consequences, we cannot afford to be complacent and action of cutting greenhouse gas emissions is needed now.

​The link to the original article is here.






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​Protein Transition
Recent developments continue to highlight the critical role of alternative proteins in addressing climate challenges. The Good Food Institute (GFI) reveals that global investment in alternative proteins passed $16 billion through Q3 2024, demonstrating continued investor confidence despite previous market challenges and noting role of securing policy support. GFI analysis also observes the rapid growth of European alternative protein research – with more than a quarter of all studies published last year amid record funding.  
Inputs Transition
The acceleration of sustainable agricultural input strategies continues to gain momentum: with regulatory developments as the EU is expanding its ESG compliance framework, introducing more granular requirements for supply chain transparency. New regulations now requiring detailed reporting on carbon footprint and biodiversity impact for agricultural inputs. The implementation is increasingly supported by technological innovations with advanced blockchain and AI-driven tracking systems are revolutionizing input traceability. Sustainable input initiatives are advancing with increased investment in regenerative agricultural inputs, with a particular focus on: microbial soil enhancers, precision fertilization technologies and climate-resilient seed technologies.
Reducing Waste
Progress in food waste reduction strategies continues with the EU confirming the previously proposed 40% household/retail food waste reduction target by 2030, with new supportive mechanisms including; financial incentives for businesses implementing waste reduction technologies, mandatory reporting for large food service providers, and advanced AI-driven waste prediction and management tools. Similar global efforts continue as reported recently at the Global Food Security Summit 2024.
Enabling Infrastructure
Building on prior efforts continues in the areas of climate-resilient agricultural infrastructure, smallholder farmer support programs, and technology transfer mechanisms for developing economies. The recent UN Biodiversity Conference (CBD COP16) included a call from the UN’s International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) to direct greater focus and funding to small-scale farmers. Rural producers are on the frontlines of biodiversity loss and climate change and must be able to sustainably grow a variety of crops for local and global consumption and in particular for the over 3 billion people who cannot afford a healthy diet. Food systems and supporting infrastructure must become more sustainable and biodiversity-friendly.

Protein transition: A new report - “A new land dividend:the opportunity of alternative proteins in Europe” - reveals that alternative proteins could greatly enhance Europe's food self-sufficiency. The research explores the impacts alternative proteins could have on land use in ten European countries. There is simply not enough land on Earth for current patterns of consumption to continue whilst avoiding climate breakdown and restoring nature. By reducing reliance on imports and bolstering local production, these proteins present a strategic advantage and the shift can offer substantial benefits for farmers in a sustainable manner.

Other recently released research indicates approximately one-third of European consumers perceive plant-based substitutes, such as vegetarian chicken pieces and vegan cheese slices, as ultra-processed foods (UPFs). Specifically, 36% view vegetarian chicken and 34% view vegan cheese this way. Interestingly, these plant-based alternatives are more likely to be considered ultra-processed than their animal-based counterparts. This perception is deterring many consumers from choosing plant-based options over traditional meat and dairy products. According to this research by EIT Food, concerns about processing levels are significant barriers. Ongoing research continues to explore the benefits of transitioning to plant-based diets, both in terms of individual health environmental impacts.

Inputs transition: Importantly for the supply of agricultural products, the EU is implementing ESG compliance requirements across larger companies' supply chains. This will help to put the spotlight on the quality and quantity of inputs used for agricultural production, which can affect biodiversity and climate resilience.  Advancements in technology, including ‘Track &Trace’ solutions, are playing a crucial role in ensuring adherence to these expanding regulations. Related to this type of requirement, new tools are being developed to prevent fraud by enabling the precise tracing of food products to their geographical origins. For example as detailed in this article, researchers are deploying isotopic markets to link hazelnuts back to their growth conditions and environment.

Reducing waste: Supporting the advancement of initiatives in this strategic area, the EU is the EU is proposing further food waste reduction targets. The European Commission’s revised proposal is for household/retail/restaurant/foodservice food waste to be reduced by 40% by 2030 (increased from 30%), for manufacturing/processing food waste to be reduced by 20% (increased from 10%).  As awareness of the potential benefits grows, these targets aim towards significant progress in minimising food waste across the region. Given the high estimated levels of food waste, the potential for corporate savings and return on investment in waste reduction initiatives is large. ​

Enabling infrastructure:  Following the United Nations’ historic COP28 affirmation towards the end of last year, “that agriculture and food systems must urgently adapt and transform in order to respond to the imperatives of climate change,”  the World Bank has now released a practical guide detailing global actions and specific steps towards similar objectives for countries at all income levels. The World Bank guide recognises the important role of government incentives in directing agriculture practices of member countries while emphasising six key areas: investments, incentives, information, innovation, institutions, and inclusion. 

The planet's climate is changing faster than expected.  The estimates by the IPCC of the temperature rise needed to reach climate tipping points have been reduced over the past 23 years from a rise in global mean surface temperatures of 5C (in the 2001 report) to 1.5-2.0C (2022 report).  We are currently at 1.2C, with the 2023 average at 1.45C.  

The Paris Climate Agreement was signed eight years ago.  We are half-way through the decade where our actions over the next five years will determine the future for generations to come.  If we don't act we are on a path to 2.7C at the end of the century.  

The earth has shown a remarkable buffering capacity to absorb changes without significant impact on the earth's climate.  53% of emitted CO2 has been soaked up by the earth's systems such as forests in Canada, Germany, Russia and the Amazon.  The Amazon rainforest has now turned from a carbon sink to being closer to a source.  Oceans have absorbed 90% of the increased hear, but the sea surface temperature is getting warmer and 2023 saw a leap in sea surface temperature, with this acceleration continuing in 2024.   Scientists don't know as it can only partly be explained by El Nino.  

All the pointers are towards higher risk of reaching tipping points, creating irreversible changes, accelerating global warming such as oceans releasing heat and forests emitting CO2 instead of absorbing.  This is likely to move us from a dampening state to an amplifying state.  The consequences?  Massively increased droughts, floods, heatwaves, human-amplified storms, with 2023 seen as a moderate year, despite extreme levels of heat (40-50C in India and the middle east), wildfires and floods., with all its economic and human consequences.  Melting of the two ice sheets (Greenland and West Antarctic), both near their tipping points will cause a 10m sea level rise.

There is time and a pathway to avoid this.  There is four years' carbon budget of 40Gt of CO2 (current levels of emissions) remaining to give us a 50% chance to staying with 1.5C of warming.  We know how we can reach net zero but need the will to get there.  But even if we achieve this there will be an overshoot owing to the warming locked into the system.  We also need to restore the earth's ecosystems in order to recreate the ability to absorb temperature and CO2 to bring ourselves back below 1.5C.