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Mbuyu Climate Blog

Food & agri climate innovation: industry update

26/8/2024

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Protein transition: A new report - “A new land dividend:the opportunity of alternative proteins in Europe” - reveals that alternative proteins could greatly enhance Europe's food self-sufficiency. The research explores the impacts alternative proteins could have on land use in ten European countries. There is simply not enough land on Earth for current patterns of consumption to continue whilst avoiding climate breakdown and restoring nature. By reducing reliance on imports and bolstering local production, these proteins present a strategic advantage and the shift can offer substantial benefits for farmers in a sustainable manner.

Other recently released research indicates approximately one-third of European consumers perceive plant-based substitutes, such as vegetarian chicken pieces and vegan cheese slices, as ultra-processed foods (UPFs). Specifically, 36% view vegetarian chicken and 34% view vegan cheese this way. Interestingly, these plant-based alternatives are more likely to be considered ultra-processed than their animal-based counterparts. This perception is deterring many consumers from choosing plant-based options over traditional meat and dairy products. According to this research by EIT Food, concerns about processing levels are significant barriers. Ongoing research continues to explore the benefits of transitioning to plant-based diets, both in terms of individual health environmental impacts.

Inputs transition: Importantly for the supply of agricultural products, the EU is implementing ESG compliance requirements across larger companies' supply chains. This will help to put the spotlight on the quality and quantity of inputs used for agricultural production, which can affect biodiversity and climate resilience.  Advancements in technology, including ‘Track &Trace’ solutions, are playing a crucial role in ensuring adherence to these expanding regulations. Related to this type of requirement, new tools are being developed to prevent fraud by enabling the precise tracing of food products to their geographical origins. For example as detailed in this article, researchers are deploying isotopic markets to link hazelnuts back to their growth conditions and environment.

Reducing waste: Supporting the advancement of initiatives in this strategic area, the EU is the EU is proposing further food waste reduction targets. The European Commission’s revised proposal is for household/retail/restaurant/foodservice food waste to be reduced by 40% by 2030 (increased from 30%), for manufacturing/processing food waste to be reduced by 20% (increased from 10%).  As awareness of the potential benefits grows, these targets aim towards significant progress in minimising food waste across the region. Given the high estimated levels of food waste, the potential for corporate savings and return on investment in waste reduction initiatives is large. ​

Enabling infrastructure:  Following the United Nations’ historic COP28 affirmation towards the end of last year, “that agriculture and food systems must urgently adapt and transform in order to respond to the imperatives of climate change,”  the World Bank has now released a practical guide detailing global actions and specific steps towards similar objectives for countries at all income levels. The World Bank guide recognises the important role of government incentives in directing agriculture practices of member countries while emphasising six key areas: investments, incentives, information, innovation, institutions, and inclusion. 
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Climate science

16/8/2024

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A data-based appraisal of the current state of our planet: scientists are becoming incressingly concerned that we are close to multiple tipping points

Johan Rockstrom is Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Professor in Earth System Science at the University of Potsdam.

Speed and scale of action on fossil fuels, circular business models, healthy plant based diets and restoration of earth systems is what matters to prevent the earth's climate spinning out of control.

The planet's climate is changing faster than expected.  The estimates by the IPCC of the temperature rise needed to reach climate tipping points have been reduced over the past 23 years from a rise in global mean surface temperatures of 5C (in the 2001 report) to 1.5-2.0C (2022 report).  We are currently at 1.2C, with the 2023 average at 1.45C.  

The Paris Climate Agreement was signed eight years ago.  We are half-way through the decade where our actions over the next five years will determine the future for generations to come.  If we don't act we are on a path to 2.7C at the end of the century.  

The earth has shown a remarkable buffering capacity to absorb changes without significant impact on the earth's climate.  53% of emitted CO2 has been soaked up by the earth's systems such as forests in Canada, Germany, Russia and the Amazon.  The Amazon rainforest has now turned from a carbon sink to being closer to a source.  Oceans have absorbed 90% of the increased hear, but the sea surface temperature is getting warmer and 2023 saw a leap in sea surface temperature, with this acceleration continuing in 2024.   Scientists don't know as it can only partly be explained by El Nino.  

All the pointers are towards higher risk of reaching tipping points, creating irreversible changes, accelerating global warming such as oceans releasing heat and forests emitting CO2 instead of absorbing.  This is likely to move us from a dampening state to an amplifying state.  The consequences?  Massively increased droughts, floods, heatwaves, human-amplified storms, with 2023 seen as a moderate year, despite extreme levels of heat (40-50C in India and the middle east), wildfires and floods., with all its economic and human consequences.  Melting of the two ice sheets (Greenland and West Antarctic), both near their tipping points will cause a 10m sea level rise.

There is time and a pathway to avoid this.  There is four years' carbon budget of 40Gt of CO2 (current levels of emissions) remaining to give us a 50% chance to staying with 1.5C of warming.  We know how we can reach net zero but need the will to get there.  But even if we achieve this there will be an overshoot owing to the warming locked into the system.  We also need to restore the earth's ecosystems in order to recreate the ability to absorb temperature and CO2 to bring ourselves back below 1.5C.
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    Michiel Timmerman

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